Precision Guesswork: History of MLS Draft Value (CASSIS 2016)
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The document discusses draft value in Major League Soccer (MLS) based on a statistical analysis of player data from 1996-2016. It finds that only about half of drafted players ever appear in an MLS match, and half leave the league within 4 years. The value of draft picks declines sharply after the first round. Late-round picks have under a 50% chance of playing in MLS and contribute little total career value. While early picks can expect 100-game careers, the average tenure of a drafted player is only about 3.5 years with their drafting club.
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Precision Guesswork: History of MLS Draft Value (CASSIS 2016)
- 1. Precision GuessworkPrecision Guesswork A History of Draft Value in Major League Soccer By Howard Hamilton
- 2. CASSIS 2016 2 What is a MLS draft pick worth? 50% never appear in league50% never appear in league 50% out of MLS within 4 years50% out of MLS within 4 years 55% don't achieve expected55% don't achieve expected career value for their teamscareer value for their teams If you knew what a draft pick is worth, what would you do with it?
- 3. CASSIS 2016 3 Talk Outline ● The Draft in Context ● How do we value a draft pick? ● How have draft values evolved? ● Which draft picks stand out? ● Which clubs stand out in the Draft?
- 4. CASSIS 2016 4 MLS Player Data Set Biographical Data Initial Acquisition Data Financial Data (2007-2015) Performance Data Player Name(s) Date of Birth Nationality Default Position(s) Acquisition Year Acquiring Team Acquisition Path Draft Path: Draft Type Round Selection Number Generation Adidas (N=1813) Contract Year Contracting Team Compensation: Base Guaranteed Minutes Appearances Substitutions Yellow/Red Cards Field Player-specific Goalkeeper-specific All players acquired by Major League Soccer between 1996-2016 (N=3250 players) Data Sources: MLS Players Union (Financial Data), ENB Sports Soccer Player Database (Performance Data), Major League Soccer (Acquisition Data)
- 5. CASSIS 2016 5 Analysis Overview Normalization of Draft Position α= k−1 N−1 α:[1, N ]→[0,1] Survival Analysis S(tij)=Pr[Ti> j] Event: Final exit from Major League Soccer Censored Observations: Active MLS players All Players Drafted Between 1996-2015
- 6. CASSIS 2016 6 Draft Declining In Influence – But Still Important Golden Age of the Drafted Player Current Reality of the Drafted Player
- 7. CASSIS 2016 7 Contribution of Draftees to Goals Scored in MLS
- 8. CASSIS 2016 8 Contribution of Draftees to Goal Assists in MLS
- 9. CASSIS 2016 9 Contribution of Draftees to Clean Sheets in MLS
- 10. CASSIS 2016 10 Draft Mortality 48% of draftees never appear! Year 3 or Bust! What percentage of draftees never appear in MLS?
- 11. CASSIS 2016 11 Draft Mortality of MLS Clubs
- 12. CASSIS 2016 12 Draft Classes Have Short Half-Lives Median tenure of MLS draft class: 3.68 years
- 13. CASSIS 2016 13 Club Draft Classes' Are Even Shorter!
- 14. CASSIS 2016 14 Draft Position Explains Expected Tenure
- 15. CASSIS 2016 15 Only Early Draft Picks Can Expect 100- Game MLS Careers
- 16. CASSIS 2016 16 Given this environment for drafted players, what is a draft pick worth? 40% of all players40% of all players 20% of incoming players20% of incoming players 50% never play in league50% never play in league 3.5 years with drafting team3.5 years with drafting team
- 17. CASSIS 2016 17 Valuing MLS Draft Picks Player Value Expression Player Value Scope Time Horizon Minutes Minutes + goals + assists (Field players) Minutes + goals allowed + clean sheets (Goalkeepers) Average Maximum Career Cumulative to previous year Up to N years before previous year V = √( M Mmax ) 2 + ( G Gmax ) 2 + ( A Amax ) 2 3 , field players V = √( M Mmax ) 2 + (1− GA GA ,max ) 2 + ( S Smax ) 2 3 , goalkeepers All College/SuperDraft Selections Between 1997-2013
- 18. CASSIS 2016 18 Draft Pick Valuation Models Training Data Career value of drafted player Career value of drafted player up to current year Cumulative value of drafted player while playing for drafting club up to current year Omniscient Model Present Model Club Model
- 19. CASSIS 2016 19 Evaluating MLS Draft Picks ● Create draft value curve by local regression → V() ● Value differential: difference between expected and actual career values R= Δeα ,Δ>0 Δe 1−α ,Δ<0 Δ=∑V p−V (α) Draft Performance Rating Value Differential Scaled by Draft Position
- 20. CASSIS 2016 20 Draft Pick Value Model Omniscient, Infinite Horizon
- 21. CASSIS 2016 21 Draft Pick Value Model Omniscient, Limited Horizon
- 22. CASSIS 2016 22 2009 Draft Pick Value Model Current, Limited Horizon
- 23. CASSIS 2016 23 2009 MLS SuperDraft Value Card Pick Value Pick Value Pick Value Pick Value 1 100 16 34.7 31 31.9 46 14.9 2 94.5 17 33.2 32 31.1 47 13.8 3 89.1 18 32.3 33 30.0 48 12.7 4 83.8 19 31.8 34 28.7 49 11.6 5 81.2 20 31.6 35 27.9 50 10.9 6 75.2 21 31.4 36 26.3 51 9.7 7 71.7 22 31.4 37 25.4 52 9.0 8 66.5 23 31.4 38 24.0 53 7.9 9 61.4 24 31.7 39 22.6 54 6.8 10 58.3 25 31.9 40 21.8 55 6.1 11 52.9 26 32.3 41 20.4 56 4.8 12 50.0 27 32.6 42 19.7 57 4.3 13 45.5 28 32.8 43 18.5 58 3.3 14 41.0 29 32.8 44 17.3 59 2.2 15 36.9 30 32.5 45 16.1 60 1.1
- 24. CASSIS 2016 24 2013 Draft Pick Value Model Current, Limited Horizon
- 25. CASSIS 2016 25 2013 MLS SuperDraft Value Card Pick Value Pick Value Pick Value Pick Value 1 100 11 20.8 21 0.7 31 0.5 2 91.6 12 14.8 22 0.7 32 0.4 3 83.2 13 10.1 23 0.7 33 0.3 4 75.0 14 7.0 24 0.7 34 0.2 5 66.8 15 4.8 25 0.7 35 0.1 6 58.8 16 3.3 26 0.7 36 0 7 50.9 17 2.3 27 0.7 37 0 8 43.2 18 1.7 28 0.6 38 0 9 35.7 19 1.2 29 0.6 10 28.2 20 0.9 30 0.5
- 26. CASSIS 2016 26 Relative Draft Value Lack of Time Horizon Overvalues Late Draft Picks
- 27. CASSIS 2016 27 Expected Draft Value Omniscient Model Yields Optimistic Estimates
- 28. CASSIS 2016 28 Expected Draft Value Drafting Clubs Don't See Most of Drafted Player Value
- 29. CASSIS 2016 29 Early Draft Picks' Competition: Other Domestic Signings
- 30. CASSIS 2016 30 Expected Salary Cost of SuperDraft Picks
- 31. CASSIS 2016 31 Draft Performance Extremes: Present Draft Valuation Model Year Pick Player Position Club 1997 29 Kevin Hartman GK LA Galaxy 2002 50 Davy Arnaud F Sporting Kansas City 2005 35 Gonzalo Segares D Chicago Fire 2010 51 Sean Johnson GK Chicago Fire MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013 Year Pick Player Position Club 1998 3 Ben Parry D San Jose Earthquakes 2005 1 Nik Besagno M Real Salt Lake 1997 2 Mike Fisher M Tampa Bay Mutiny 2011 1 Omar Salgado F Vancouver Whitecaps Draft Busts Draft Gems
- 32. CASSIS 2016 32 Draft Performance Extremes: Club Draft Valuation Model Year Pick Player Position Club 1997 29 Kevin Hartman GK LA Galaxy 2002 50 Davy Arnaud F Sporting Kansas City 2005 35 Gonzalo Segares D Chicago Fire 2010 51 Sean Johnson GK Chicago Fire MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013 Year Pick Player Position Club 1998 3 Ben Parry D San Jose Earthquakes 2001 1 Chris Carrieri F San Jose Earthquakes 1997 2 Mike Fisher M Tampa Bay Mutiny 1999 1 Jason Moore M DC United Draft Busts Draft Gems
- 33. CASSIS 2016 33 Draft Performance Extremes: Defenders (Present Model) Year Pick Player Club 2004 60 Jeff Parke New York Red Bulls 1998 30 Joe Franchino LA Galaxy 2005 35 Gonzalo Segares Chicago Fire 1998 8 Mike Petke MetroStars MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013 Year Pick Player Club 1998 3 Ben Parry San Jose Earthquakes 2000 9 John Wilson Sporting Kansas City 1999 10 Tony Soto LA Galaxy 1999 9 Matt Chulis Columbus Crew Draft Busts Draft Gems
- 34. CASSIS 2016 34 Draft Performance Extremes: Forwards (Present Model) Year Pick Player Club 2002 50 Davy Arnaud Sporting Kansas City 1998 9 Jeff Cunningham Columbus Crew 2004 53 Alan Gordon LA Galaxy 2005 29 Chris Rolfe Chicago Fire MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013 Year Pick Player Club 2011 1 Omar Salgado Vancouver Whitecaps 1999 7 John Wolyniec MetroStars 1999 8 Andrew Mittendorf Colorado Rapids 2007 8 Jerson Monteiro Chicago Fire Draft Busts Draft Gems
- 35. CASSIS 2016 35 Draft Performance Extremes: Goalkeepers (Present Model) Year Pick Player Club 1997 29 Kevin Hartman LA Galaxy 1998 26 Matt Reis LA Galaxy 2000 35 Nick Rimando Miami Fusion FC 2002 23 Jon Busch Columbus Crew MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013 Year Pick Player Club 2008 8 Josh Lambo FC Dallas 2008 12 Dominic Cervi Chicago Fire 2002 22 Bryheem Hancock LA Galaxy 2002 24 Mike McGinty DC United Draft Busts Draft Gems
- 36. CASSIS 2016 36 Draft Performance Extremes: Midfielders (Present Model) Year Pick Player Club 2003 43 Jack Jewsbury Sporting Kansas City 1998 14 Carey Talley DC United 1998 13 Pablo Mastroeni Miami Fusion FC 2002 3 Brad Davis MetroStars MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013 Year Pick Player Club 2005 1 Nik Besagno Real Salt Lake 1997 2 Mike Fisher Tampa Bay Mutiny 2007 6 Nico Colaluca Colorado Rapids 2008 5 Ciaran O'Brien Colorado Rapids Draft Busts Draft Gems
- 37. CASSIS 2016 37 Which MLS Clubs Find Draftees Who Have Productive MLS Careers? MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013
- 38. CASSIS 2016 38 Which MLS Clubs Find Draftees That Benefit Them? MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013
- 39. CASSIS 2016 39 Middle Draft Selections Hard to Get Right
- 40. CASSIS 2016 40 An endangered species in a crowded player acquisition environment. Low lifetime costsLow lifetime costs Long time to high valueLong time to high value Low value after Round 1Low value after Round 1 The MLS Draft Passing on late rounds of MLS SuperDraft becomes understandable.
- 41. Thank You!Thank You! Soccermetrics Research, LLC www.soccermetrics.net @soccermetrics Howard H. Hamilton, Ph.D.